Global Iron Transition Outlook
Green Iron Trade Atlas
A future-facing view of direct reduced iron (DRI) and hot briquetted iron (HBI) trade — presenting modelling results on where green iron could be produced for export, where demand could concentrate and which trade routes could prove cost-competitive.
Modelling output forthcoming
This module presents the intended structure of the Green Iron Trade Atlas ahead of validated release. All regions, shares, routes and figures shown below are illustrative and are provided to demonstrate layout only. They should not be cited until Task 52 trade modelling has been completed and reviewed.
Scope
What the Trade Atlas will cover
The atlas brings together the supply, demand, infrastructure and scenario dimensions that shape a future market for traded green iron.
Future DRI/HBI export regions
Where direct reduced iron and hot briquetted iron could be produced for export, based on renewable hydrogen potential, iron ore endowment and energy cost.
Import demand centres
Regions likely to draw on traded green iron to decarbonise steelmaking, shaped by policy, scrap availability and existing furnace stock.
Cost-competitive trade routes
The corridors linking low-cost producers to demand centres, ranked by delivered cost under different hydrogen, ore and carbon-price assumptions.
Shipping and port requirements
Vessel, handling and port-infrastructure implications of moving HBI and DRI at scale, including bulk-carrier capacity and terminal readiness.
Green iron vs hydrogen / ammonia export
A comparison of exporting reduced iron against exporting the underlying hydrogen or ammonia, weighing energy losses, value retention and infrastructure needs.
Regional competitiveness
Relative production economics across candidate export regions under varying technology routes, ore quality and policy support.
Trade pathway scenarios
Alternative futures for green-iron trade, from reference development to accelerated transition and trade-constrained outcomes.
Explore the data
Filter trade modelling results
In the validated release, results will be explorable by year, scenario, technology route and the key cost and policy assumptions that drive green-iron competitiveness.
Supply and demand
Export regions and demand centres
Indicative candidate producers of traded green iron alongside the regions most likely to draw on imports to decarbonise steelmaking.
Future export regions
- High potential
Australia
HBI / green iron
- High potential
Brazil
HBI / DRI
- Medium-high potential
Middle East / North Africa
DRI / HBI
- Medium potential
Nordics
DRI / green steel
Import demand centres
-
European Union
Policy + scrap limits -
East Asia
Large existing steel capacity -
North America
EAF transition
Trade flows
Trade flow map
Export regions, demand centres and the cost-competitive routes connecting them will be visualised on an interactive map.
Interactive map — placeholder
Future export regions, demand centres and trade routes will be visualised here.
Scenarios
Trade pathway scenarios
Modelling results will be presented across a set of contrasting scenarios spanning hydrogen cost, policy ambition and trade openness.
Indicative traded green-iron volumes
Mock dataTraded volume, 2050
~180 Mt
Share of iron trade
~25%
Lead export region
Australia
Largest import bloc
EU
Illustrative values for layout only. Replace with validated Task 52 model outputs.
Sample output
Cost-competitive trade routes
An indication of the route-level detail planned for the validated release, ranking corridors by delivered cost and traded product.
| Export region | Demand centre | Product | Indicative route | Relative delivered cost |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Australia | East Asia | HBI | Pilbara → Northeast Asia | Low |
| Brazil | European Union | HBI / DRI | Atlantic → North Sea ports | Low–medium |
| Middle East / North Africa | European Union | DRI / HBI | Mediterranean → South Europe | Medium |
| Nordics | European Union | Green steel | Baltic → continental Europe | Medium |
Illustrative routes for layout only — not validated Task 52 modelling output.
Contribute to the Trade Atlas
Researchers, project developers and trade analysts are invited to share data and assumptions to strengthen the Green Iron Trade Atlas ahead of validated release.